Rare October Rally Quells Correction Fears... Permanent Re-Start Unlikely

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 MCIM Portfolio Values Benefit from Energy Sector & Income CEF Surges 

Income CEF Yields Fall as Prices Rebound Over 3%

MCIM Profit Taking Activity Explodes; S & P Struggles to 1% Annual Gain 

Bargain Stock Numbers Shrink but NONE, (nadda) In Energy Sector

When equity prices "bubble", many investors sell their safer positions to jump into stocks at "ATH" prices... when bubbles burst, safer securities eventually thrive.

No investor should be surprised by changes in market value on monthly account statements. Media noise throughout the month should prepare you for what's going on.

The future is unpredictable, but developing reasonable portfolio expectations is essential to your long-run investment comfort --- and sanity. The Performance Expectation Analyzer has been developed for MCIM investors who want to better understand their monthly performance numbers.

No account statements present proper asset allocation information where there are income CEFs, REITs & MLPs; they also provide grossly inaccurate individual bond prices... call your congressman.

The IGVS Performance Analyzer applies exclusively to Market Cycle Investment Management Programs. It has four elements:

ONE: The IGVSI is 9% ahead of the S & P 500 over the past 8 years. (see the Peak-Trough-Peak Chart); monthly income and realized gains have more than offset income CEF price weakness thru October.

TWO: The IGVS Bargain Monitor shrunk in both September and October reflecting strength in the Energy and Utility sectors.

NOTE: The information provided here is not intended to be predictive of anything. It is most relevant for portfolios with at least 60% invested in Equities. Study The Brainwashing of the American Investor... you'll understand.

THREE: IGVS Issue Breadth Stats:  Negative through first 9 months, and barely positive now, are the weakest since the Financial Crisis.

FOUR: IGVS New Highs vs. New Lows totally negative from July thru September, rallied strong in October... annual levels weakest in 8 years.

Negatives: All stats are trending "market negative" in spite of the huge October rally

Positives: Short Term yes; Long Term... only the shadow knows.

Income CEFs prices are still negative for 2015, but now less than their annual dividend production: yields remain around 6% tax free & 8% taxable. Working Capital and "base income" continue to grow.

Remember MCIMers: Working Capital and Base Income continue to grow with or without market value gains... is that cool, or what! 

YES, even if the stock market plunges, Working Capital & Base Income should continue to grow so long as withdrawals remain lower than income.

Equity "Smart Cash" levels are shrinking, as buying opportunities are appearing in non-energy issues.

Monthly Statement Prognosis: Most portfolio values will be much higher in October; all continue to produce more income the "market" is growing in 2015. 

SERIOUS NOTE: In all environments, always try to add more to your portfolio than you remove. Also, try to think of lower prices (in income CEFs for example) as opportunities instead of problems... that's what they have always proven to be.

For more information, call 800-245-0494 or e-mail Steve (sanserveataoldotcom).

Market Cycle Investment Management
3912 Betsy Kerrison Pkwy
Johns Island, SC 29455
Phone (800) 245-0494 • Fax (843) 243-8509
Contact Steve directly for additional information: 800-245-0494

Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment adviser representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of any business entity; the information is only intended to be educational and thought provoking.

The Working Capital Model - Market Cycle Investment Management - FREE Mentoring Program

Professional Investor/Manager Steve Selengut, and an experienced panel of experts, walk you through the Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) portfolio management process. We'll hold your hand, answer your questions, and do everything we can short of security selection as you learn how to run your own (or your client's) portfolio.

The Mentoring Program is FREE, and includes:

  • The "Road To Success" Investment Training Program (minimum of 3 sessions)
  • The "Performance Investors Want & How to Get It" program (if applicable) 
  • The "Market Cycle Investment Management" program

The mentoring program is no longer private --- at least six people (all "Brainwashing" book owners) must attend each meeting.

Note:  Headsets will make the experience much more productive.


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The Investment Grade Value Stock Index - Continued - The IGVSI was developed in December of 2007 to provide a benchmark for the Equity portion of MCIM po...
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Risk Minimization, The Essence of Market Cycle Investment Management - The MCIM methodology combines risk minimization, asset allocation, equity trading, investment grade ...
The Art of Investing: Working Capital Model based Asset Allocation - This method of looking at things will get you where you want to be without the hype that Wall Street...
Asset Allocation Based Performance Analysis - One - It matters not what lines, numbers, indices, or gurus you worship, you just can't know where the sto...
What Investors Want & How To Get It: - The What Investors Want and How To Get It Seminar is an investment performance enhancement tutorial ...

Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment advisor representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own and do not represent the views of any other entity. None of his commentary is or should be considered either investment advice or a solicitation of business. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be or should be construed as an endorsement of any entity or organization. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or investments mentioned are any more than illustrations --- they are never recommendations, and others will most certainly disagree with the thoughts presented in the article.