IGVSI Equity Market Rally Enters Danger Zone
Tax Free Income CEF Yields Average Above 7%... last chance?
MCIM Models Prepared For Equity Price Corrections
Market Volatility Brings Back (some) Trading Opportunities
When equity prices start to bubble, NSB (not so bright) investors tend to sell their safer positions to jump into stocks at much too high prices --- don't be that person. The correction is absolutely coming; the only ? is when...
No investor should be surprised by changes in market value on monthly account statements. Media noise throughout the month should prep you for what's going on, as prices change constantly.
Don't Let The Bad Guys Fuel Your Greed --- Take Your Profits!
The future is unpredictable, but understanding the past and how it impacts your portfolio, is essential to your long-run investment comfort --- and sanity. This Performance Expectation Analyzer has been developed for MCIM investors who want to understand their account statements better.
No account statements present proper asset allocation information for accounts that include income CEFs --- they will not reflect the "purpose" of your securities.
The IGVS Performance Analyzer applies exclusively to Market Cycle Investment Management Programs.
It has four elements:
ONE: The IGVSI has established 60 new ATHs in 2013; S & P 37. See the Peak-Trough-Peak Chart. Eventually, the direction will change.
The S & P was in the red for over 5 years, and is barely ahead of where it was 14 years ago --- MCIM portfolios have performed better, but are sputtering due to high smart cash levels, and lower income CEF prices... normal "topping out" behavior.
TWO: The IGVS Bargain Monitor remains sparse --- November buying opportunities averaged just 9 per day. Your equity "bucket" should hold large cash and Equity CEF positions.
NOTE: The information provided here is not intended to be a prediction of anything. It is most relevant for portfolios with at least 60% invested in Equities. If you study The Brainwashing of the American Investor, you'll understand.
THREE: IGVS Issue Breadth Statistics were positive in November --- the 10th "up" month in 2013, and the strongest year...ever!.
FOUR: IGVS New 52-Week High vs. New 52-Week Low Statistics are just plain scary...
Negatives: There are none, in classic "pre-correction" style. Beware the irrational exuberance of a rally sparked by the "bad news" that keeps the Fed pouring money into the system.
Income CEFs moved lower reflecting a speculative Equity bubble, and loss taking to offset gains in equities. Bubbles always act as magnets for boring, safer investments.
Positives: Still too many in such a flat economy --- and the up-down-up-down monthly statistics have stopped:
Income CEFs continue to pay steady income --- and boast very serious yields, above 7% even. Statement market values should reflect the November weakness in this sector.
Working Capital and base income continue to grow with or without market value gains... is that cool, or what!
If the stock market plunges, both Working Capital & Base Income will continue to grow so long as withdrawals remain lower than the base income itself. Ya follow?
Equity "Smart Cash" remains at near record levels, as the bargain shopping season has not quite gotten started.
Monthly Statement Prognosis: All portfolios will show lower market values in November, worse, if you made significant withdrawals.
There is absolutely no reason to think that economic conditions will not improve over the long run, and still every reason to add to portfolios whenever prices fall into the "buy zone" --- that's the only known way to meaningfully increase your Working Capital.
SERIOUS NOTE: In all environments, always try to add more to your portfolio than you remove.
Click here for more information --- from the only authorized MCIM investment managers on the planet.