October Market Stats Offer Mixed Directional Messages

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 IGVSI Equities up 39% vs. 2007 Highs; S & P 32%

Tax Free Income CEF Prices Rise; Yields Remain High

Issue Breadth Stronger; 52-Week Hi vs Low #'s Remain @ Weakest Level In Years

Bargain Stock Monitor Signals Correction

When equity prices "bubble", many investors sell their safer positions to jump into stocks at "ATH" prices... when bubbles burst, safer securities thrive.

No investor should be surprised by changes in market value on monthly account statements. Media noise throughout the month should prep you for what's going on, as prices change constantly.

Have You Taken Your Profits? 

The future is unpredictable, but understanding the past and how it impacts your portfolio, is essential to your long-run investment comfort --- and sanity. This Performance Expectation Analyzer has been developed for MCIM investors who want to understand their account statements better.

No account statements present proper asset allocation information where there are income CEFs --- they show them as common stock positions... they also provide grossly inaccurate bond prices.

The IGVS Performance Analyzer applies exclusively to Market Cycle Investment Management Programs. It has four elements:

ONE: The IGVSI has established 12 new ATHs in 2014; the S & P, 35. See the Peak-Trough-Peak Chart. The S & P usually overtakes the IGVSI just before a correction... it did so in July.

MCIM portfolios have performed better than the S & P over the long haul, but sputter during extended rallies... IGVSI stock prices seem to be more "sticky" when corrections happen.

TWO: The IGVS Bargain Monitor was virtually unchanged in October,"smart cash" balances moved lower. 

NOTE: The information provided here is not intended to be a prediction of anything. It is most relevant for portfolios with at least 60% invested in Equities. Study The Brainwashing of the American Investor, you'll understand.

THREE: IGVS Issue Breadth Stats strengthened in late October to end in positive territory.

FOUR: IGVS New 52-Week High vs. New 52-Week Low Statistics remained at correction levels; the 1st ten months were the weakest in recent years.  

Negatives: The S & P is above the IGVSI; Breadth is strong, but High vs. Low numbers are weakerand the Bargain List is longer.

Income CEF asset buckets moved back up in Octoberand yields remained extremely attractive.

Positives: Some, but certainly not rally numbers... early stage of a correction seems more likely.

Income CEFs continue to pay steady income --- and boast very serious yields... October statement market values will be higher; base income and working capital levels higher as well.

Remember MCIMers: Working Capital and Base Income continue to grow with or without market value gains... is that cool, or what! 

Even if the stock market plunges, both Working Capital & Base Income will (most likely and logically) continue to grow so long as withdrawals remain lower than the base income itself. Ya follow?

Equity "Smart Cash" levels are shrinking, as buying opportunities increase.

Monthly Statement Prognosis: Most portfolios (particularly income portfolios) will be higher in market value unless significant deposits were made.

SERIOUS NOTE: In all environments, always try to add more to your portfolio than you remove. Also, try to think of lower prices (in income CEFs for example) as opportunities instead of problems... that's what they have always proven to be.

Click here for more information --- from the only authorized MCIM investment managers on the planet.


 
Market Cycle Investment Management
3912 Betsy Kerrison Pkwy
Johns Island, SC 29455
Phone (800) 245-0494 • Fax (843) 243-8509
Contact Steve directly for additional information: 800-245-0494

Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment adviser representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of any business entity; the information is only intended to be educational and thought provoking.


The Working Capital Model - Market Cycle Investment Management - FREE Mentoring Program

Professional Investor/Manager Steve Selengut, and an experienced panel of experts, walk you through the Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) portfolio management process. We'll hold your hand, answer your questions, and do everything we can short of security selection as you learn how to run your own (or your client's) portfolio.

The Mentoring Program is FREE, and includes:

  • The "Road To Success" Investment Training Program (minimum of 3 sessions)
  • The "Performance Investors Want & How to Get It" program (if applicable) 
  • The "Market Cycle Investment Management" program

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Note:  Headsets will make the experience much more productive.

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Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment advisor representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own and do not represent the views of any other entity. None of his commentary is or should be considered either investment advice or a solicitation of business. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be or should be construed as an endorsement of any entity or organization. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or investments mentioned are any more than illustrations --- they are never recommendations, and others will most certainly disagree with the thoughts presented in the article.