November Market Stats Hint of Year End Window Dressing

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 IGVSI Equities up 43% vs. 2007 Highs; S & P 34%

Income CEF Prices Slightly Lower; Yields Remain Above 6% (tax free)

Issue Breadth, 52-Week Hi vs Low #'s, Whisper "Window Dressing"

Bargain Stock Monitor Gives Mixed Signals

When equity prices "bubble", many investors sell their safer positions to jump into stocks at "ATH" prices... when bubbles burst, safer securities thrive.

No investor should be surprised by changes in market value on monthly account statements. Media noise throughout the month should prepare you for what's going on, as prices change constantly.

Have You Taken Your Profits? 

The future is unpredictable, but understanding the past and how it impacts your portfolio, is essential to your long-run investment comfort --- and sanity. This Performance Expectation Analyzer has been developed for MCIM investors who want to understand their account statements better.

No account statements present proper asset allocation information where there are income CEFs --- they show them as common stock positions... they also provide grossly inaccurate bond prices.

The IGVS Performance Analyzer applies exclusively to Market Cycle Investment Management Programs. It has four elements:

ONE: The IGVSI has established 20 new ATHs in 2014; the S & P, 48. See the Peak-Trough-Peak Chart. The S & P usually overtakes the IGVSI just before a correction... it did so in July.

MCIM portfolios typically sputter during extended rallies, as money runs from safeer issues... IGVSI stock prices seem to be more "sticky" when corrections happen.

TWO: The IGVS Bargain Monitor shrunk in November,"smart cash" balances moved higher; energy sector prices faltered.

NOTE: The information provided here is not intended to be a prediction of anything. It is most relevant for portfolios with at least 60% invested in Equities. Study The Brainwashing of the American Investor, you'll understand.

THREE: IGVS Issue Breadth Stats  November in positive territory, but not impressively.

FOUR: IGVS New 52-Week High vs. New 52-Week Low Statistics strengthened; the the "down days" total will be the highest since 2011.  

Negatives: The S & P is above the IGVSI; Breadth is just barely positive, but High vs. Low numbers are weakest in years, and the Bargain List remains longerand 50% in one sector..

Income CEF asset buckets moved lower in November, but with still generous yields available.

Positives: Most #'s are, but not as positive, and it sure smells like old fashioned Window Dressing" to me..

Income CEFs continue to pay steady income --- and boast very serious yields... November statement

values will be flat; base income and working capital levels higher.

Remember MCIMers: Working Capital and Base Income continue to grow with or without market value gains... is that cool, or what! 

Even if the stock market plunges, both Working Capital & Base Income will (most likely and logically) continue to grow so long as withdrawals remain lower than the base income itself. Ya follow?

Equity "Smart Cash" levels are stable, as buying opportunities are narrowly focused in energy issues.

Monthly Statement Prognosis: Most portfolios (particularly income portfolios) will be higher in market value unless significant deposits were made.

SERIOUS NOTE: In all environments, always try to add more to your portfolio than you remove. Also, try to think of lower prices (in income CEFs for example) as opportunities instead of problems... that's what they have always proven to be.

Click here for more information --- from the only authorized MCIM investment managers on the planet.


 
Market Cycle Investment Management
3912 Betsy Kerrison Pkwy
Johns Island, SC 29455
Phone (800) 245-0494 • Fax (843) 243-8509
Contact Steve directly for additional information: 800-245-0494

Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment adviser representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of any business entity; the information is only intended to be educational and thought provoking.


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The Mentoring Program is FREE, and includes:

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Please read this disclaimer:
Steve Selengut is registered as an investment advisor representative. His assessments and opinions are purely his own and do not represent the views of any other entity. None of his commentary is or should be considered either investment advice or a solicitation of business. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be or should be construed as an endorsement of any entity or organization. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or investments mentioned are any more than illustrations --- they are never recommendations, and others will most certainly disagree with the thoughts presented in the article.